Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Matt Garza

Matt Garza will be a Chicago Cub this year, and it seems that Cubs nation is split on how they feel about this deal.  There are two points a view about this deal:

1) We sold the farm - what happened to building our farm system!
The Ricketts are getting nervous about empty seats and negative press next year.  This deal brings a proven arm to a mediocre at best starting rotation.  The last thing the Ricketts need is an empty ballpark when they are trying to prove to the community and the state that crumbling Wrigley Field is a top tourist attraction and worth using millions of dollars in state taxes to renovate.  The Ricketts are gambling that Wood and Garza can bring enough stability to the pitching staff to contend with the Cards, Reds and Brewers.  This will keep the seats full and keep the Cubs relevant this summer.  However, we mortgaged the future just to contend in our division!!

2) This is what a farm system is for - the ability to acquire proven talent!
Matt Garza is reaching the prime of his career and is only going to improve.  He has the ability to become a dominant #1 for many years to come.  We gave up six prospects who have proved nothing at the major league level for a pitcher who has proven (in the toughest division in baseball) that he is the real deal.  In the last 3 years with Tampa, he has never had an ERA above 4.00, and has started 30 or more games each season.  He has learned to deal with his emotions and has successfully pitched in the post-season.

I for one am disappointed we traded six top prospects for Garza.  I agree with the many folks who feel Jim Hendry has assembled one of the better farm systems in the league.  Without strong farm systems, deals like this don't happen.  However, I think the price was a little to steep.  I really like the upside of Chris Archer and Jak-Ju Lee.  Brandon Guyer and Robinson Chirinos are also coming off outstanding years.  It goes without saying that you have to give up talent in order to acquire talent, so to me, it comes down to negotiating skills.  Throwing in five legitimate prospects for one proven commodity seems to high.  I was hoping the Cubs would take the attendance hit this year while continuing to field a young team. 

That being said, I hope I'm wrong.  These five prospects may turn out to be average players, with Garza dominating the weaker hitting N.L.  If that is this case, this turns out to be a great deal.  Even if a couple of these prospects turn out to be good MLB players, it's OK, if Garza dominates for the next 5 years.  Hopefully,what we have left on the farm is good enough to withstand the blow of losing these five kids.  Maybe Hendry made a great deal and it had nothing to do with attendance or Wrigley Field.  Maybe Chris Archer will never get over his wildness, and Jak-Ju Lee is another Cesar Izturis.  The other guys in the swap are older.  Maybe their past the point of quality returns?

These deals take a lot of time to play out, and they ultimately determine whether a GM stays or goes. There's a lot of luck involved here, so it's not always fair, but this league is very unfair and unforgiving, just ask the Royals, Mariners and Pirates.

Whats your take on this?

9 comments:

  1. I'd love to see the Cubs rebuild and be patient -- bring forth a core group of players next year and give guys like Castro and Colvin another year to learn, get them more experience in the bigs and then make that push in 2012 with a few choise free agent pickups. If any team could wait a bit the Cubs could, the biggest beer garden in the city is going to fill up during the summer months regardless of the product though attendance would suffer in Sept. This is depressing -- shows a complete lack of strategy on the part of the Cubs.

    Then again, the Cubs have the money to patchwork forever. Maybe Soriano will have his last huge year and Pena will hit .230 with 40 HRs, Zambrano and Aramis will bounce back to stellar form and Castro will blossom into the next Hanley Ramirez. Cubs run away with the division.

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  2. I agree - they have the money to do patch work forever. Trading for Garza seems like something a team would do when they are ready to win a WS. Many think Hendry is preparing this team for 2012. Garza will lead a young rotation that may include prospects:

    Trey McNutt, Casey Coleman, Jeff Samardzija and 3rd year man Andrew Cashner. It would have been nice to see Archer stay in this mix too. And maybe Jak-Ku Lee at 2b.

    http://www.news-journalonline.com/sports/baseball/daytona-cubs/2010/08/17/cubs-chatter-with-trey-mcnutt.html,

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  3. I’m a bit torn on this too, I like it because with a lot of luck, the Cubs could be a competitive team next year. I don’t like it because teams with good farm systems don’t trade away five promising players for one proven guy. The fans would have been understanding of a really really bad year, after a few years, the Rickets won’t have that luxury. They may be squandering a good year to re build.

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  4. DREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEWWWWWWW - Good point. six players to give up seems like a hell of a lot.

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  5. I think your reasoning about the fact that the Cub management cannot afford a "rebuilding" year is right on. Attendance is the big factor. I did not think there was any way for Cub attendance to go down, but last year proved me wrong. The back page of the Tribune has an article about the "quiet" Cub off-season.
    Elmhurst Fred

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  6. Every deal Hendry makes always feels like his last one. He's the Matt Millen of Chicago. We're not going to get a true sense of the long-term direction of this team in the Ricketts' era until a new GM is hired. So, I'm not surprised or disappointed that Hendry pulled the trigger. Every day he flips the lightswitch on in his office is one less day that he'll have a desk. Politics play as much a role in some deals as the Xs and Os.

    Meanwhile, while the Yankees have nurtured a small handful of their own into the bigs, they are renown for trading future talent. Seems to work for them. Why not sell the future -- something in which I don't believe; there is no "future," only the present -- for an arm like Garza in his prime? Again, no one alive today can remember the Cubs last World Series victory. I'm all for letting them build for 2011. That IS the future.

    But Mike hits on a great point; that is, negotiating ability. I think Hendry has a great eye for talent, but lacks in the cutthroat nature of making deals. He'd be an excellent consultant for Major League Baseball, but he's not a bulldog in the front office.

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  7. I think the other day Garza may do well in the Chicago market given that Tampa couldn't give away tickets to their games. As to his stats I would like to see how he does in Wrigley without a dome in the Spring.

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  8. Prospects are like suspects - pick any 5 and maybe one of them turns out to be "the guy". Give me a proven commodity over maybe's unless one of the maybe's has shown something really special in the minors.

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