Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Cubs 2011 Starting Rotation

A winter cold kept me from posting the last few days, I need to be 100% when writing these things - my audience deserves the best.  Not to mention, no one is reading this.  Anyway, as promised here is a look at the Cubs starting rotation for 2011.  I'll start with a 9 man rotation and widdle it down from there.

Carlos Zambrano - looked like he was pitching and not just throwing at the end of 2010.
Ryan Dempster - has been very consistent the past three seasons with 2.96, 3.65 and 3.85 ERA respectively
Tom Gorzelanny - Cubs would love to see him recapture 07 form (14-10 3.88)
Carlos Silva - Great results first half of 2010.  Heart issues cut the season short for him.  Huge contract, very inconsistent over career.
Randy Wells - Solid #5 starter on any team. Don't expect him to be anything else.
Andrew Cashner - Signing of Kerry Wood may open the door for a starting role.  this guy throws in the upper 90's with a solid slider.  If he can master the changeup this spring, look for him to get a shot at the SR.
Casey Coleman - Some impressive starts vs. STL & HOU to finish 2010.  Relies on location with an excellent changeup.
Chris Carpenter - Fastball low to mid 90's, excellent curveball - working on changeup.  great work ethic.  25 years old, spent 4 years at Kent State.
Jeff Samardzija - Now 26 years old has looked awful in the pen. Started throwing some effective splits and sliders towards tail-end of 2010 season.  Has to be considered for 2011 SR based on initial investment.  He has the tools, but can he put it all together?

It's hard to predict who will start or if the Cubs will get a deal done for another starter.  Just like they need a legit #3 hitter in the lineup, they also need a legit #1 to lead this rotation.  No idea if Brandon Webb could be that guy.  Rumor has it the Cubs are pursuing him, but his velocity is way down after arm surgery.  I'd like to see some young guys in the mix, along with a couple veterans, I think it's a better reflection on where the Cubs are headed as an organization.  If I had to predict the rotation today it would be:

#1 Dempster - he deserves that opening day nod
#2 Zambrano - Prozac in the house
#3 Tom Gorzelanny - Gorzo will get a chance to anchor the middle of the rotation, but I think he'll be on a short leash if he does not get off to a solid start...
#4 Andrew Cashner - Why not?  Give him a year of experience on a rebuilding team.  If he can keep the ERA around 4.5, then I think it's great on the job training.
#5 Carlos Silva / Casey Coleman  - I think Silva starts the year based on his inflated salary alone, but the oft injured big man may be in and out of the rotation.  Look for Coleman to lock it up mid-June.

As for the rest, here are my predictions:

Randy Wells - Traded before spring training
Chris Carpenter - One more year as starter in AAA
Jeff Samardzija - see above (the cubs would love nothing more than to see him bust out in 2011, but he still needs to master his off-speed stuff.)

Well, that's all I got for today.  The big news around town is who will be Santo's replacement.  My vote would be for Sutcliffe, who seems like a good guy.

5 comments:

  1. Great stuff, Mike.

    As for the rotation, I agree that young arms can make for a very special rotation, but they can also make for a totally mediocre one. There are definitely some good things happening with the youngsters, but I don't think we can really know what we have just yet.

    As to the booth, I'm sure it's a long shot, but I'd love to see the Cubbies steal Grace from the D-Backs to fill Ron's seat. But really, Pat is the best in the business, and whomever they get is only going to do better along side of him.

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  2. Thanks Chris -

    I'll take a mediocre staff this year, if we can build something special for the next few years.

    As for Grace, I think he's a good fit, along with Sutcliffe, Moreland (loved his work on the radio this year) or Steve Stone. I heard today that Ronnie Woo-Woo is now in the mix...

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  3. I like it, interested to hear your thoughts on the set-up and closers.

    Big J

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  4. Thanks Big J-

    When you making your comeback?

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  5. I totally agree. Other than going out and buying a new staff every year like the Yankees and Phillies -- which I would say is going a long ways to ruining the game -- growing a staff in house is by far the best way to have a long term solid rotation.

    I just played out a scenario where Pat Hughes tried to call a play with "woo -- go -- woo -- Cubbies" interjected throughout... Even the remarkably humble Pat Hughes would have a hard time putting up with that for very long.

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