Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Dethrone Selig

Will anyone else grow tired of the Cubs playing the Reds 18 times in 2011?  How about playing the Pirates 16 times?  As Bud Selig and his minions discuss how to add more wild card teams, making the regular season less meaningful, I have decided to do my own reorganization.

Lets go back to 4 divisions, two in the A.L. and two in the N.L.  Each division will have a regular season winner, and each league will have two wildcard winners.  Both wild card winners in the N.L. could come out of the same division.  I like this, because it gets rid of the three division format which often leaves an outstanding team out of the playoffs.  The other advantage of the two division format is seeing more teams in your division, thus more games with different teams.  My format will call for only a slightly unbalanced schedule.  Here's how the N.L would work:

N.L. East:                                                            N.L. West:
Reds*                                                                   Cubs*
Pirates                                                                  Astros#
Mets                                                                     Rockies#
Phillies                                                                  Padres
Nationals                                                              Giants
Marlins                                                                 Cardinals
Braves                                                                  Dodgers      
Brewers                                                                DiamondBacks

The Cubs would play each team in their division 11 times and each team in the west 8 times.  Additionally, they would play a 3 game series against each team from one of the A.L. divisions.  The A.L. would look like this:

A.L West:                                                             A.L. East:
Angels*                                                                  Yanks*
Mariners#                                                               Red Sox#
A's                                                                         Toronto
Royals                                                                    Baltimore
Rangers                                                                  Cleveland
Twins                                                                     Rays
White Sox                                                              Tigers

As far as the playoffs go, I'm all for the 7 game series in the NLDS/ALDS.  Lets squeeze in this 7 game series with less days off for these teams.  No more days off during series play.  Make these teams use all 5 starters like they had to in the regular season.

By the way, in the above scenario, the Cubs and Reds won their divisions with Houston and Colorado winning the wild card spots.  In the A.L, the Yanks and Angels won their divisions, with the Red Sox and Mariners winning the wild cards.  Cubs go on to beat the Yanks in a 7 game World Series.  Sounds like a good 2012 to me!!

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Matt Garza

Matt Garza will be a Chicago Cub this year, and it seems that Cubs nation is split on how they feel about this deal.  There are two points a view about this deal:

1) We sold the farm - what happened to building our farm system!
The Ricketts are getting nervous about empty seats and negative press next year.  This deal brings a proven arm to a mediocre at best starting rotation.  The last thing the Ricketts need is an empty ballpark when they are trying to prove to the community and the state that crumbling Wrigley Field is a top tourist attraction and worth using millions of dollars in state taxes to renovate.  The Ricketts are gambling that Wood and Garza can bring enough stability to the pitching staff to contend with the Cards, Reds and Brewers.  This will keep the seats full and keep the Cubs relevant this summer.  However, we mortgaged the future just to contend in our division!!

2) This is what a farm system is for - the ability to acquire proven talent!
Matt Garza is reaching the prime of his career and is only going to improve.  He has the ability to become a dominant #1 for many years to come.  We gave up six prospects who have proved nothing at the major league level for a pitcher who has proven (in the toughest division in baseball) that he is the real deal.  In the last 3 years with Tampa, he has never had an ERA above 4.00, and has started 30 or more games each season.  He has learned to deal with his emotions and has successfully pitched in the post-season.

I for one am disappointed we traded six top prospects for Garza.  I agree with the many folks who feel Jim Hendry has assembled one of the better farm systems in the league.  Without strong farm systems, deals like this don't happen.  However, I think the price was a little to steep.  I really like the upside of Chris Archer and Jak-Ju Lee.  Brandon Guyer and Robinson Chirinos are also coming off outstanding years.  It goes without saying that you have to give up talent in order to acquire talent, so to me, it comes down to negotiating skills.  Throwing in five legitimate prospects for one proven commodity seems to high.  I was hoping the Cubs would take the attendance hit this year while continuing to field a young team. 

That being said, I hope I'm wrong.  These five prospects may turn out to be average players, with Garza dominating the weaker hitting N.L.  If that is this case, this turns out to be a great deal.  Even if a couple of these prospects turn out to be good MLB players, it's OK, if Garza dominates for the next 5 years.  Hopefully,what we have left on the farm is good enough to withstand the blow of losing these five kids.  Maybe Hendry made a great deal and it had nothing to do with attendance or Wrigley Field.  Maybe Chris Archer will never get over his wildness, and Jak-Ju Lee is another Cesar Izturis.  The other guys in the swap are older.  Maybe their past the point of quality returns?

These deals take a lot of time to play out, and they ultimately determine whether a GM stays or goes. There's a lot of luck involved here, so it's not always fair, but this league is very unfair and unforgiving, just ask the Royals, Mariners and Pirates.

Whats your take on this?

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Wrigley Field

The Chicago Tribune reported today that the Cubs are working on amending their plan to secure state aid for Wrigley Field renovations.  Here is a link to this short article...
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-1228-around-town--20101227,0,6701863.column

The article mentions that the new plan would have the Cubs matching their 2009 tax payments to the city, 16 million, and keep any tax revenue above this figure for park improvements.  While many Illinois residents have a hard time with the Cubs receiving state aid to improve the ballpark, I for one have no problem with it.  I agree with the Ricketts family that Wrigley field, being one of the largest tourist attractions in the state, is a cash cow for the city.  Renovations and park improvements, including the proposed triangle building, would create jobs and additional tax revenue.  These are the types of projects that stimulate city and state economies.  Here are a few more thoughts on Wrigley renovations and the Wrigley community:

I have no problem with the Cubs renovating the park, as long as they do not raise the level of the upper deck.  In my opinion, the position of the upper deck, which hangs close to the field (only one row of suites) is what helps give Wrigley Field it's charm.  I would not have a problem with the park adding additional rows to the upper deck, but adding another layer of skyboxes for corporate America is something I am not in favor of.  If you have seen a game at US Cellular Field or the United Center, you know what I'm talking about.

I am in favor of new large and state of the art clubhouses underground, including better batting cage facilities for the players.  I would agree that players do get coddled at the pro level, but in order to stay competitive, why not give Cubs player all the benefits other teams have.  I'm OK with Wrigley bathrooms, in fact, I'm fine the way they are.  Women may disagree with this, but I think the men's bathrooms are fine.  I like the trough idea, as it gets more bodies into the bathrooms.  The small amount of upgrading that was done last year is fine with me. 

Advertising is a sticky subject with many people, but I have had no problem with anything the Cubs have done.  This includes the Under Armour advertisements and the Toyota sign in left field.  I think the Cubs have handled this with class and have kept the integrity of Wrigley Field in place.  I'm in favor of creating ways to generate revenue even if it includes minor changes to the ballpark.  As long as the Cubs act like a big market team with a payroll in the top 5 of baseball, I can live with these changes.

Many say that MLB owners are great at crying poor and actually earn a lot more in revenue than the general public is aware of.  That may be the case, but as long as the payroll is in proportion with the market you play in, it's hard to argue with what teams like the Cubs are doing to generate revenue.  Yes, when the Ricketts bought the Cubs they were aware they would have to renovate Wrigley Field, but believe me, it was never in the plan to pay for it out of their own pockets.  They already have a huge payroll, so renovating the park is going to take some creativity, and some "thinking outside the box."  Many state/city projects are busts from the get go, here is a project that includes a thriving fan base and community that will create jobs not just now but in the future.  To me, it's a no brainer to ask for state aid, and I hope that politicians can work past their differences to do a good thing for the City of Chicago.

One final thought.  For all the Wrigleyville residents who complain every time the Cubs want to add a night game, an advertisement or more seats, please don't forget what this team has done for your community.  There was a time, not to long ago, when Wrigleyville was not such a pleasant place to live.  Business in this neighborhood is booming and living there is safe, thanks in part to the Cubs.  If you don't want to live in an area that is congested 81 times per year, then by all means move.  There are many wonderful communities in Chicago that don't have this issue.  I once lived in Wrigleyville, Kenmore and Belmont, and still don't understand much of the heartburn some residents have with the Cubs.  I understand it's good to have a group of residents watching the Cubs and making sure they don't go overboard, but it is beyond me why they have to contest almost every proposal the Cubs make.

Maybe some of you disagree with some of my thoughts, or have a different view.  If so, then by all means post a comment.  I look forward to hearing from you.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Cubs 2011 Starting Rotation

A winter cold kept me from posting the last few days, I need to be 100% when writing these things - my audience deserves the best.  Not to mention, no one is reading this.  Anyway, as promised here is a look at the Cubs starting rotation for 2011.  I'll start with a 9 man rotation and widdle it down from there.

Carlos Zambrano - looked like he was pitching and not just throwing at the end of 2010.
Ryan Dempster - has been very consistent the past three seasons with 2.96, 3.65 and 3.85 ERA respectively
Tom Gorzelanny - Cubs would love to see him recapture 07 form (14-10 3.88)
Carlos Silva - Great results first half of 2010.  Heart issues cut the season short for him.  Huge contract, very inconsistent over career.
Randy Wells - Solid #5 starter on any team. Don't expect him to be anything else.
Andrew Cashner - Signing of Kerry Wood may open the door for a starting role.  this guy throws in the upper 90's with a solid slider.  If he can master the changeup this spring, look for him to get a shot at the SR.
Casey Coleman - Some impressive starts vs. STL & HOU to finish 2010.  Relies on location with an excellent changeup.
Chris Carpenter - Fastball low to mid 90's, excellent curveball - working on changeup.  great work ethic.  25 years old, spent 4 years at Kent State.
Jeff Samardzija - Now 26 years old has looked awful in the pen. Started throwing some effective splits and sliders towards tail-end of 2010 season.  Has to be considered for 2011 SR based on initial investment.  He has the tools, but can he put it all together?

It's hard to predict who will start or if the Cubs will get a deal done for another starter.  Just like they need a legit #3 hitter in the lineup, they also need a legit #1 to lead this rotation.  No idea if Brandon Webb could be that guy.  Rumor has it the Cubs are pursuing him, but his velocity is way down after arm surgery.  I'd like to see some young guys in the mix, along with a couple veterans, I think it's a better reflection on where the Cubs are headed as an organization.  If I had to predict the rotation today it would be:

#1 Dempster - he deserves that opening day nod
#2 Zambrano - Prozac in the house
#3 Tom Gorzelanny - Gorzo will get a chance to anchor the middle of the rotation, but I think he'll be on a short leash if he does not get off to a solid start...
#4 Andrew Cashner - Why not?  Give him a year of experience on a rebuilding team.  If he can keep the ERA around 4.5, then I think it's great on the job training.
#5 Carlos Silva / Casey Coleman  - I think Silva starts the year based on his inflated salary alone, but the oft injured big man may be in and out of the rotation.  Look for Coleman to lock it up mid-June.

As for the rest, here are my predictions:

Randy Wells - Traded before spring training
Chris Carpenter - One more year as starter in AAA
Jeff Samardzija - see above (the cubs would love nothing more than to see him bust out in 2011, but he still needs to master his off-speed stuff.)

Well, that's all I got for today.  The big news around town is who will be Santo's replacement.  My vote would be for Sutcliffe, who seems like a good guy.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

2011 Chicago Cubs starting lineup

Not a lot of big Cubs news since the signing of Kerry Wood last week.  It looks like the signings of Carlos Pena and Kerry Wood may be the only high profile signings of the off-season.  I do not predict the Ricketts family to spend another dime before the beginning of spring training.  According to the USA Today, the Cubs were 3rd in MLB and #1 in the NL in team payroll at 146.6 Million in 2010:
http://content.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/salaries/totalpayroll.aspx?year=2010

With bad contracts already on the books (Soriano, Fukadome, Zambrano, Silva) I think that the Ricketts family is going to try and win with the team they have.  Until the big contracts are off the books, I think Cubs fans can expect basically the same team as 2010.  If they can somehow may a strong showing through June, then Hendry may get the go ahead to make a big trade, but for this to happen, the Cubs will have to have some big time play from young players like Starlin Castro, Tyler Colvin, Andrew Cashner and Casey Coleman.

Today, I'm going to project the Cubs 2011 starting lineup, and tomorrow I will look at the starting rotation.  The rest of the week I will also look at the bullpen, the bench and the coaching staff.

Barring any major trades before the start of the 2011 season, the Cubs lineup projects like this:

1. Starlin Castro ss
2. Marlon Byrd cf
3. Aramis Ramirez 3b
4. Carlos Pena 1b
5. Alfonso Soriano lf
6. Tyler Colvin rf
7. Geovany Soto c
8. Blake DeWitt 2b

Look for Kosuke Fukodome to get starts in cf and rf during the season, but I just can't see him getting the starting nod over Colvin, especially with only a year left on his contract.  We now know what we have in Fuk., and it's nothing to write home about, in fact, look for Fuk to finish his career at home, in Japan, after the 2011 season.

One way for the above lineup to click is for Aram to have a monster year.  If  he gets off to another slow start, the Cubs are in trouble.  I do not see any other legitimate #3 hitters in this lineup, unless Hendry makes some sort of a deal, but #3 hitters require lots of young talent, and this ball club is in no position to start dealing youngsters.

The lineup has holes, but before you diehards start to panic, lets take a good hard look at the starting rotation.  There are a few things to look forward to, the staff is deep, and the 2010 season ended on a nice note for the young arms.  Stay tuned for tomorrow's post to see if we are deep in mediocre pitching?  Or, if there is something to get excited about...

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Blogging 101

For a few years now people have told me I should blog about my favorite team, the Chicago Cubs.  So what would it take to get me started? How about the signing of my favorite Cub, Kerry Wood. 

May 6th, 1998 was the day I re-entered the crazy, unpredictable, and frustrating world of Cubs baseball.  I was at work, my first job after college,  when I pulled up the cubs live box score online.  Scrolling down to the bottom of the page I saw a sentence that read (in tiny print) "Kerry Wood has 18 strikeouts through 8 innings."  I immediately emailed friends and family while frantically hitting the refresh button on my web browser. 

As we all know, Kerry finished with 20 K's.  His performance that day still holds up as one of the most dominating performances in baseball history, but what I remember is a humble 20 year old kid pumping his fists after his last strikeout.  Immediately after the game, Kerry was interviewed by Chip Caray and Steve Stone.  With his hands shaking, Wood tried his best to explain what he had just done.  At that moment, the pain of 1984 and 1989 was gone.  I was focused on this moment - this day.  Kerry had sucked me back in. 

Well, as any cubs fan can tell you, it's been a roller coaster ride since 1998.  There have been some great moments and a lot of painful ones, but I stay committed to the team I grew up with.  I'm not sure I would try and persuade anyone I truly care about to be a Cubs fan, but I am going to stick it out. 

Today Kerry Wood signed a 1 year deal with the Cubs for 1.5 million.  By all accounts this is significantly less than he could have gotten from other teams including the White Sox.  What I like about it is that it frees up Andrew Cashner for a starting role in 2011.  A good bullpen starts with a dominating starting rotation, and a dominating rotation starts with young arms.  I'm looking forward to seeing Cashner in the starting rotation, and I'm excited about Woody setting up Marmol.

The Cubs are Kerry Wood, Ryne Sandburg, Mark Grace, Andre Dawson, Lee Smith, Ernie Banks, Santo, Williams, Jenkins, Maddux, Dunston, Moreland, Ramirez.  Cubs fans reminisce about players, broadcasters and sunny days in the most beautiful park in baseball.  But what about the teams?  It's hard to look back fondly on teams that ultimately disappoint and leave deep wounds.  69, 84, 89, 98, 03, 04, 07, 08 all have one thing in common - heartbreak.  My message to Tom Rickett's, (as if he's reading this) build a team to remember!

Sure, sports is entertainment, but after investing time and money into any ball club, losing hurts.  I dare any fan of their favorite team to say otherwise, and if they do, well, are they really fans?  I suspect they spend most of their time playing Dungeons and Dragons and perusing Harry Potter websites.

Thanks for reading my first blog.  It's 12:26 A.M., so technically Kerry Wood was signed yesterday.  Welcome back Kid K!